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Sabato moves Pa to "likely" Obama

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Sabato prez ratings

Here's the latest writing on the wall (following yesterday's polls) that Barack Obama is wrapping up the presidential race at least in Pa: Larry Sabato at UVa has moved his rating on the Pa race from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic."

Their explainer:

Three weeks after the Democratic National Convention, we see little indication that the lead President Barack Obama took after it has faded. Obama is leading Mitt Romney by about four percentage points nationally, according to an average of national horserace surveys, and his edge has trickled down to the swing states.

So with 40 days to go, we’re moving several toss-up states in the president’s direction. Our changes push Obama over the magic 270 mark, but we are not calling the race. First, the debates are yet to come. There is at least the possibility that, if Romney fares particularly well or Obama does poorly, the drift of this contest could change. Second, other events — international (a crisis) or domestic (dramatically poor economic numbers) — could theoretically occur to re-write the narrative of the race. So caution is always in order with almost six weeks to go, yet President Obama clearly leads at the moment.

They did not change their Senate ranking in the Casey/Smith race as the WashPost did yesterday.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney will return to Pa tomorrow at noon for a rally at the Valley Forge Military Academy & College in Wayne, the campaign announced this morning.

Graphic: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

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Congress, 18th District

Published by Administrator on .

Tim Murphy, Republican/Larry Maggi, Democrat

Bios:

timmurphy copyMurphy, 60, Upper St. Clair (left) was first elected to Congress in 2002. Other work experience: psychologist, award-winning author, lieutenant commander in the Navy Reserve Medical Service Corps, adjunct faculty member at University of Pittsburgh Department of Public Health and Department of Pediatrics, former state senator. Education: Bachelor's degree, Wheeling Jesuit University; master's in clinical psychology, Cleveland State University; and doctorate in psychology, University of Pittsburgh. Family: Wife, Nan, and daughter, Bevin

Maggi, 62, Buffalo Township (right) is a Washington County commissioner, former county sheriff, retired state trooper, former Marine. Education: Bachelor's degree, California University of Pennsylvania. Family: Wife, Mary Jeanne, children Bronwyn, Paul, Michelle, Charlene.

Matchup:
Popular Washington County politician and youth wrestling referee versus policy-savvy incumbent in a majority Democratic, but conservative, district.

Campaign Strategy:LarryMaggi
Murphy: Emphasizing his conservative values, work to save the 911th Air Wing and opposition to President Barack Obama's economic and health-care policies.
Maggi: Promoting his middle-class background and financial stewardship in local government.

Weaknesses:
Maggi: Started the campaign little known outside of Washington County and with little experience on national issues.
Murphy: Facing a stronger-than-usual challenger in a district with more Democrats than Republicans.

Money: As of June 30, Murphy had $1 million on hand while Maggi had $408,000. (See updated numbers here.)

Websites:
Tim Murphy
Larry Maggi

-- By Joe Smydo

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Congress, 12th District

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Candidates: Mark Critz, Democrat/Keith Rothfus, Republican

Bios:

critz225Critz, 50, of Johnstown (left), has been in office since 2010 and was formerly district director for late U.S. Rep. John Murtha. He graduated from Indiana University of Pennsylvania in 1987. He is married and the father to twins.

Rothfus, 50, of Sewickley (below right), came within 2 percentage points of ousting U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire, D-McCandless, in 2010. He is an attorney and former Federal Emergency Management Agency official during the George W. Bush administration. Rothfus is married and has six children.

Matchup:rothfus225
Conservative Republican in newly-drawn district north and southeast of Pittsburgh vs. conservative Democrat with deep ties to organized labor

Campaign strategy:
Rothfus: A political outsider with private sector experience, Rothfus is running hard against Obamacare and the national debt, and introducing himself with upbeat ads.
Critz: A survivor of tough races in 2010 and a primary battle against Altmire this spring, Critz is focusing on protecting Medicare and manufacturing/union jobs, while running away from his party's standard-bearer, Barack Obama.

Weaknesses:
Critz: Republicans drew up the 12th district for a GOP takeover, Critz is little-known in Allegheny and Beaver counties, and Obama's numbers are poor in the district.
Rothfus: If he couldn't win in the 2010 Republican wave year, how can he do so in year where Democrats and labor are motivated to protect the seat? Rothfus is little known in Cambria and Somerset counties, where Mitt Romney may not be very popular either.

Ads:
Rothfus introduced himself with upbeat spots showing his family, miniature golf game and pushback on Democratic claims about Chinese free trade. Critz's first spot highlighted his support for manufacturing and distanced him from Obama. Outside groups have targeted Rothfus on China and Medicare, and Critz on Obamacare.

Outside groups (including labor unions and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) have run ads on behalf of Critz and others (from the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Young Guns Action fund) have run them for Rothfus.

Websites:

Mark Critz

Keith Rothfus

Money: (See updated numbers here)
Critz's finances were battered by his primary matchup with Jason Altmire. He spent $1.3 million during the cycle so far (with new reports due in mid-October) and had $428,000 in cash.

Rothfus spent just over $270,000 and had $647,479 available at the end of June.

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Congress, 3rd District

Published by Administrator on .

Race: U.S. House 3rd District, which includes Armstrong, Butler and Mercer counties and parts of Clarion, Crawford, Erie and Lawrence counties.

Candidates: Mike Kelly, R; Missa Eaton, D; Steven Porter, Ind.

Bios:
mikekellyMike Kelly, 64, (left) who lives in the City of Butler, owns a multi-brand auto dealership. A graduate of Butler High School, where he played football, he won an athletic scholarship to Notre Dame. An injury there cut short his athletic career.
He is a former member of Butler City Council and was first elected to Congress in 2010, defeating Democratic incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper. He serves on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, Committee on Foreign Affairs and Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.
He and his wife Victoria are the parents of four children.

Missa Eaton, 49, (right) lives in Sharon. She had been an assistant missaeatonprofessor of psychology at Penn State's Shenango campus since 2004, resigning this fall to campaign full time.
She grew up in Dallas, Texas, and earned a bachelor's degree in psychology from the University of Texas at Austin. She earned both master's and doctoral degrees in psychology from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
She and her husband John, a self-employed computer programmer, have one daughter, Kalie. This is her first run for office.

Steven Porter, 69, (below) and his wife Rita live in Wattsburg, a small borough about 15 miles southeast of Erie. Born in the Bronx, he grew up in New York's Westchester County. He studied at the Juilliard School and Oberlin Conservatory before graduating from the Mannes College, He earned a master's from Queens College and a doctoral degree from New York's City University and Long Island University.
steveporterHe was a public school teacher and administrator for 37 years. He later headed the department of musical theater at Mercyhurst College. He has composed more than 150 musical compositions and written 22 books. He has run for office both in New York state and in Pennsylvania, where he was twice the unsuccessful Democratic candidate for the 3rd District seat.

Matchup:
Redistricting by the Republican-controlled state Legislature put all of Butler County, Mr. Kelly's home county, into the 3rd District, giving his campaign a demographic boost. Votes for Independent candidate, Mr. Porter, are likely to come at the expense of Ms. Eaton, the Democratic hopeful.

Campaign strategy:
Speaking out on both economic and social issues, Mr. Kelly has not been a shy freshman member of the House, fighting against what he describes as the Washington status quo.
Ms. Eaton has focused on Mr. Kelly's comfortable upbringing as the son of a business owner and on his unwillingness to face his election opponents in multiple debates.
Mr. Porter says he is running as an independent because both major parties are too much in debt to special interests.

Weaknesses:
Mr. Kelly has drawn national attention, much of it unfavorable, for his comparison of contraception provisions in the Affordable Care Act, known informally as Obamacare, to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 and the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor.
Ms. Eaton finds herself well behind on fundraising behind her incumbent opponent. She is likely to lose at least some votes to Mr. Porter, who has staked out more liberal positions to her left.
Third-party candidates, like Mr. Porter, usually get little attention from the media.

Websites:
Mr. Kelly
Ms. Eaton
Mr. Porter

Money (via Open Secrets)
Mr. Kelly, total raised, $809,098.
Ms. Eaton, total raised, $130,867
Mr. Porter, who believes in public financing of campaigns, has been self-financing his campaign. He estimates he has spent less than $5,000, mostly for filing fees and lawn signs. (See updated numbers here.)

-- By Len Barcousky

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State House, 20th District

Published by Administrator on .

Candidates: Adam Ravenstahl, Democrat/Jim Barr, Constitution
 
Bios:
 
AdamRavenstahlRavenstahl, 27, of Summer Hill (left), a former UPMC business analyst, won the post in a special election in 2010. He's Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl's brother.
Barr, 59, of West View (right), is a caregiver to mentally challenged adults. He has run for office repeatedly and unsuccessfully, including a 2008 bid for this seat.
 
Matchup:
 
Young Democrat with a prominent family name tries to fend off third-party challenger with losing track record.
 
Campaign strategyjim barr
 
Ravenstahl: Acutely aware of his party's minority status in Harrisburg and resulting inability to pass legislation, he's focusing on his constituent service work.
Barr: The state should go back to its constitutional roots and eliminate the property tax, he's telling voters.
 
Weaknesses
 
Ravenstahl: A young member of the opposition, he can't point to legislative accomplishments.
Barr: Without a major party, money, or even a pick-up truck to transport signs, he's on his own.
 
Websites:
 
 
Money:
Ravenstahl raised around $6,500 in a May fundraising push.
Barr reports one small contribution.
 
-- By Rich Lord