Here's the latest writing on the wall (following yesterday's polls) that Barack Obama is wrapping up the presidential race at least in Pa: Larry Sabato at UVa has moved his rating on the Pa race from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic."

Their explainer:

Three weeks after the Democratic National Convention, we see little indication that the lead President Barack Obama took after it has faded. Obama is leading Mitt Romney by about four percentage points nationally, according to an average of national horserace surveys, and his edge has trickled down to the swing states.

So with 40 days to go, we’re moving several toss-up states in the president’s direction. Our changes push Obama over the magic 270 mark, but we are not calling the race. First, the debates are yet to come. There is at least the possibility that, if Romney fares particularly well or Obama does poorly, the drift of this contest could change. Second, other events — international (a crisis) or domestic (dramatically poor economic numbers) — could theoretically occur to re-write the narrative of the race. So caution is always in order with almost six weeks to go, yet President Obama clearly leads at the moment.

They did not change their Senate ranking in the Casey/Smith race as the WashPost did yesterday.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney will return to Pa tomorrow at noon for a rally at the Valley Forge Military Academy & College in Wayne, the campaign announced this morning.

Graphic: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball