Chris Briem at Null Space shows just how hard it will be for Jim Ferlo to stay in the state Senate if the latest maps are allowed to stand. The new 38th is Republican-performing and should be a cakewalk for (presumably) Randy Vulakovich. From Chris:
So the story is that while there is some very odd renumbering going on, the district of Jane Orie's tenure has been morphed to stretch into the city of Pittsburgh in order to cover the residence of the Jim Ferlo. Thus a fiction to say that Ferlo's district was not eliminated. Jim Ferlo's district, for the longest time held by one Len Bodack Sr. (Jr last we heard is working for the PWSA) stretched out along the Allegheny River Valley is pretty much kaput. So there is a special election coming up for the remaining term of Jane Orie which will be based on the geography of the existing district... but then the redistricting kicks in and then what is going to happen? The North Hills of Allegheny County is pretty much the core of the county's Republican Base and the new district pretty much covers it all. Thus the early prognostication that it is a Republican seat to lose. Yet it also sticks into the city and adds some core Democratic Party votes that were not part of the district before.
(Speaking of going red, let's see if Vulakovich brings up Ed McCaul's attack line from 1991.)