Schwartz poll: Leads primary and general for guv

Published by Tim McNulty on .

U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz's nascent gubernatorial campaign did polling two weeks ago claiming the MontCo congresswoman is the leader in the ever-expanding Democratic field clamoring to take on Tom Corbett next year, and would be the top vote-getter out of the crucial Philadelphia media market.

Schwartz would lead a three-way Dem race among Treasurer Rob McCord and businessman/Rendell cabinet member Tom Wolf with 31% to their 12 and 5% respectively. Once voters are read bios of the trio (listed in pdf below) her lead is 58% to their 14 and 8%. In a wide field including Joe Sestak, former DEP Secretary John Hanger and others she's still squeaks by as the leader, with 18% to Sestak's 15%.

The memo notes polling by the Democratic Governor's Assoc. in January would have her beating Corbett 50-42% in November 2014, though that shouldn't surprise anybody paying attention to the traffic jam of rough polls for Corbett lately. (Earlier this month Quinnipiac said Corbett is "going nowhere" and PPP said his reelection was in "dire shape.")

Which in a weird way is bad for Democrats. Corbett's numbers are so lousy that it's hard to keep track of all the candidates in the race (the latest is state Rep. Scott Conklin of Centre Co, according to PoliticsPa), and at least early on is making conditions right for an expensive internecine battle that could end up weakening the last Dem standing. (See: Smith v Welch v Burns v Rohrer v Scaringi.)

And which is why it is to the Schwartz team's advantage to get out in front with poll findings like the one here, which was shared with the P-G. Schwartz also has a good deal of money she can push into a no-holds-barred state campaign finance fund, and could be an intriguing culture-war opponent against Corbett if it comes to that.

Pollsters Global Strategy Group did live interviews with 601 likely Democratic voters March 9-12. The study has a 4% margin of error.

Schwartz Viability Memo

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