Q poll: Corbett losing to most Dems

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Gov. Tom Corbett has his worst overall approval ratings ever in the latest Quinnipiac poll, and trails every major Democratic challenger except for DEP chief John Hanger.

From their latest study:

Pennsylvania voters give Gov. Tom Corbett a negative 36 - 53 percent approval rating, his worst net score ever, and say 56 - 36 percent that he does not deserve reelection, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to Gov. Corbett's negative 35 - 48 percent approval in a June 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when voters said 52 - 32 percent he does not deserve reelection.

Today, Corbett gets negative grades of 31 - 58 percent from women, 42 - 47 percent from men, 16 - 75 percent from Democrats and 35 - 53 percent from independent voters. Republicans approve 61 - 27 percent.

As the 2014 election year begins, U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz leads Corbett 45 - 37 percent. Matchups with other possible Democratic challengers show:
State Treasurer Rob McCord with 42 percent to Corbett's 39 percent;
Corbett over former State Public Utility Commissioner John Hanger 42 - 37 percent;
Former presidential advisor Katie McGinty over Corbett 44 - 37 percent;
Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski with 41 percent to Corbett's 39 percent;
Former State Auditor General Jack Wagner over Corbett 48 - 36 percent;
Former State Department of Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf over Corbett 44 - 37 percent.

The findings track similar bad news for the incumbent in last month's Public Policy Polling survey.

UPDATE: Here's some analysis, from Jim O'Toole:

Mr. Corbett's numbers are bleak across the board, but women are particularly down on his re-election. The incumbent actually won plurality support among men against most of the the Democrats tested. The exceptions were Mr. Wagner, who ran ahead in the tallies of both genders, and Ms. Schwartz, who tied the governor among men, but Mr. Corbett managed to run ahead among male voters in trial heats with Mr. Hanger, Ms. McGinty, Mr. McCord, Mr. Pawlowski and Mr. Wolf.

With women, however, it was a different story. A gender gap, with women relatively more likely than men to favor Democrats, is common in American politics, but Mr. Corbett's deficit with female voters is particularly wide. Mr. McCord led among women, 46 percent to 34 percent; Ms. Schwartz, 51-35; Mr. Hanger, 39-36; Ms. McGinty, 48-34; Mr. Pawlowski, 47-32; Mr. Wagner, 51-30; and Mr. Wolf, 47-32.

But to note that Mr. Corbett does better with men that women is not to say he is in great shape with either gender. Among all voters, 53 percent said they did not approve of the governor's job performance. On that question, men broke against him narrowly, 47-42; while an overwhelming majority of women, 58-31 percent, disapproved.

On the question of whether the governor deserves re-election, strong majorities of men, 53-39, and women, 59-32, said no. While Mr. Corbett managed to run ahead among independent voters in each of the trial heats against potential Democratic opponents, a strong majority of independents, 54-36, nonetheless said that he does not deserve re-election.

Mr. Corbett's overall negative reviews were consistent with the fact that most voters gave him negative marks on each of a list of specific issues, such as handling taxes, 62-28 percent; and handling education, 62-28 percent against the governor. Mr. Corbett's strongest issue marks came on transportation, the focus of the legislative breakthrough this fall that heartened some of his supporters. But he was still on the losing end of that evaluation, with 34 percent approving of his performance, and 34 percent expressing approval.

The GOP-controlled Legislature was similarly unpopular, with 56 disapproving its performance compared to just 31 percent approval.

The numbers reflected a generally grumpy electorate, with 57 percent saying that they were somewhat or very dissatisfied with the state's general direction compared to 41 percent who said they approved.

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