On the historic guv year

FiveThirtyEight questions the U-Minn. post we linked to yesterday about the historic year shaping up for GOP governors:

A closer look at this eye-catching claim indicates that the "most gubernatorial seats" projection is technically correct, but a bit misleading, since Republicans are very unlikely to have a better gubernatorial year than in 1994, when they gained ten net seats; the higher level of wins, if it happens, will be attributable to the higher level of current GOP governorships going into this cycle. And the idea that Republicans could win 29 governorships, while possible, depends on placing a lot of credence in the Rasmussen surveys that dominate current gubernatorial polling.

Their full takedown is here.