The Erie factor

Our friends at GrassrootsPa are linking to my story on Dahlkemper-Kelly today, highlighting my note in there that McCain only won this (supposedly GOP-leaning) district by a mere 16 votes.

That data ain't easy to come by -- especially in a district that covers several partial counties -- so here's a spreadsheet detailing the state's 2008 prez votes from the people at Swing State Project. (Look for the 3rd District, close to the top of the page, at the right.)

Thanks to Renee Lamis for the help on that score. Buy her book.

Lamis, who lives in Erie, notes in the story how the city dominates the district (it has 191,632 of its 427,699 total votes according the state election bureau's latest numbers), and here's a bit more on the city's dominance:

For almost 50 years, and through continual re-districting of the state's congressional lines, only one person has represented NW Pa who wasn't from Erie. If you like history, that's good for Kathy Dahlkemper (and bad for Butler's Mike Kelly). What's bad for Dahlkemper/good for Kelly is they've all been Republicans, too, with the exception of one guy (Joe Vigorito) who came into office in the LBJ landslide of 1964, and served six terms.

Here's the breakdown:

2009-2010: Kathy Dahlkemper (D) Erie
1995-2008: Phil English (R) Erie
1983-1994: Tom Ridge (R) Erie
1977-1982: Marc Marks (R) Mercer County
1964-1976: Joe Vigorito (D) Erie
1963-1964: James Weaver (R) Erie