Dems: Sestak up 2

If you click the "Political Turf" button at the top of the Early Returns homepage, it'll take you to the Pollster poll averages in PA, and right at the top is the Senate race, in which every poll has shown Pat Toomey leading -- click on the map and it will take you to a list of recent polls showing Toomey leading by an average of 7 points, and as high as 9.

So forgive us some reporterly suspicion about internal poll numbers the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released to the Washington Post this morning claiming that Sestak is ahead of Toomey by two points, and by 5 if leaning voters are included. The committee's pitch is their attacks against Toomey have been working lately, which is why their GOP counterparts are now advertising in the state.

Here's the WP's Chris Cillizza:

The DSCC poll, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang and obtained by The Fix, shows Sestak at 44 and Toomey at 42 -- a marked shift from other recent public polls that have shown Toomey leading by between three and 12 points.

The poll surveyed 604 likely voters from Oct. 8-10. If voters who lean slightly toward one candidate are included, Sestak is at 47 and Toomey is at 44.

The DSCC and Sestak have both been using TV ads to hit Toomey on a trade deal with China that they say cost the United States -- and Pennsylvania -- jobs.

Democrats say these attacks are having a major effect on the race as is an awakening of the party's base in the Keystone State.