GOP out to beat Obama in Pa
Republicans are rolling out efforts to beat Obama in Pennsylvania next year.
RNC chairman Reince Priebus is holding a conference call this morning on the committee's latest ad in Pa (more on that here, plus DNC response to ad), and they released a memo on the president's lagging polls in the state (the latest from PPP had him basically tied with Mitt Romney).
It says in part:
In Pennsylvania, the biggest electoral prize of the four with 20 electoral votes, Obama’s polling has been dismal. Two surveys conducted in June by Quinnipiac and Susquehanna Polling and Research show his re-elect numbers at 48% and 44% respectively. Obama’s job approval in the Susquehanna survey was upside down by 7 points (41% approve, 48% disapprove). This week, Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat firm, released a survey showing Obama again upside down in his job approval - 46% approve to 48% disapprove – and showed him tied at 44% in a theoretical matchup against a candidate for the Republican nomination. Democrats were swamped in Pennsylvania in 2010, when an motivated electorate propelled Republicans to take control of the Governorship, a US Senate seat, the State House, and five US House seats.
The full memo from RNC political director Rick Wiley is after the jump:
Memorandum
To: Interested parties
From: Rick Wiley, RNC Political Director
Date: 7.13.11
RE: Obama’s Backyard: MI, PA, NH and WI
President Obama won in 2008 by winning nine states President Bush carried in 2004. These states will undoubtedly be battlegrounds again in 2012 and Obama’s surrogates have also talked about widening the 2012 electoral map and playing in other states he failed to carry in 2008, like Arizona and Georgia. This seems a curious strategy given the trouble he has closer to home.
The Obama campaign should pay close attention to four states that represent 50 electoral votes – Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Obama easily won these states by an average margin of 13 points in 2008, and together they’ve mustered only one win for a GOP Presidential nominee in the last five Presidential elections (George W. Bush carried New Hampshire with 48% in 2000). But recent polling in these states, and overwhelming GOP victories in 2010, shows Obama isn’t just weaker than he was in 2008, but he is in real danger of losing electoral votes.
In Pennsylvania, the biggest electoral prize of the four with 20 electoral votes, Obama’s polling has been dismal. Two surveys conducted in June by Quinnipiac and Susquehanna Polling and Research show his re-elect numbers at 48% and 44% respectively. Obama’s job approval in the Susquehanna survey was upside down by 7 points (41% approve, 48% disapprove). This week, Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democrat firm, released a survey showing Obama again upside down in his job approval - 46% approve to 48% disapprove – and showed him tied at 44% in a theoretical matchup against a candidate for the Republican nomination. Democrats were swamped in Pennsylvania in 2010, when an motivated electorate propelled Republicans to take control of the Governorship, a US Senate seat, the State House, and five US House seats.
Recent polling in New Hampshire, conducted by the University of New Hampshire for WMUR, also showed the President’s job approval upside down with 46% approving and 49% disapproving. The poll also showed him behind in a theoretical matchup with a Republican candidate. Last month ARG released a survey showing his approval rating upside down by a whopping 15 points (39% approve, 54% disapprove). In 2010 Republicans rolled in New Hampshire as well, knocking off both members of the US House delegation and regaining control of both chambers of the state legislature.
Public polling in Michigan and Wisconsin has been less frequent, but the drubbing Democrats took in 2010 cannot be ignored. In states that voted for Barack Obama by 16 and 14 points respectively, Republicans wrestled the Governorship of both states from the Democrats, as well as a US Senate seat in Wisconsin, two US House seats in each state, and three state legislative chambers (resulting in full control of the legislature in each state). That historical perspective combined with Obama’s abysmal economic record and new taxes and regulations on the auto industry should make Team Obama think twice about taking too many states from his 2008 coalition for granted.