The Critz for Congress campaign says the race for the Democratic nomination in the new 12th District against fellow incumbent Jason Altmire is closer than some may think, with the Johnstown man within 10 points of his McCandless rival. Back home in Cambria/Somerset he leads Altmire 88-4%, it says.
Critz isn't as well known as Altmire, a poll memo says, but among those who are familiar with both candidates the race is essentially tied. The Critz camp is going all-out for help from organized labor to close that gap.
"The results of our survey of Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District put Mark Critz in a solid position to overtake Jason Altmire and win the primary in April once voters become more familiar with Critz and aware of the candidates' recent votes on key
issues important to Democrats," the memo from Critz pollsters Global Strategy Group.
The Almire camp released its own poll findings last month showing him with a 16-point lead.
The Critz memo is in full after the jump:MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson
RE: CD 12 Democratic Primary Poll Results
DATE: February 14, 2012
The results of our survey of Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District put Mark Critz in a solid position to overtake Jason Altmire and win the primary in April once voters become more familiar with Critz and aware of the candidates' recent votes on key
issues important to Democrats.
• If the Democratic primary for Congress was today, 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Jason Altmire, and 37% would vote for Mark Critz.
• Among voters who are already familiar with both candidates, the race is essentially tied, with Critz at 46% and Altmire at 45%.
• In the Johnstown-Altoona media market (Cambria and Somerset counties), Critz holds a commanding lead over Altmire, 88% to 4%.
• Mark Critz is familiar to just under half of the primary electorate (47% familiar), with 39% viewing him favorably, and 8% viewing him unfavorably.
• Jason Altmire starts the race much more familiar to primary voters (71% familiar), with 52% viewing him favorably and 19% viewing him unfavorably.
• After voters are read brief positive profiles of both candidates – and no negative information about either – Critz moves into a seven-point lead over Altmire, 46% to 39%. Note that the profile of Altmire that was read to voters was the same profile Altmire used in his own poll and released to the press.
• This memorandum summarizes results from a telephone poll of 400 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania conducted February 2-5, 2012.
• The estimation error associated with a sample of 400 is 4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.9 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic
divisions of the actual electorate are properly represented.