A poll memo released by McCandless Democrat Jason Altmire's campaign claims he has a 24-point lead in PA12 over Johnstown Democrat Mark Critz, a jump of 8 points from a 16-point lead in January.
The jump was driven in part by the Critz camp's legal challenge of Altmire's nominating petitions, which the memo claims turned off voters in the district north and east of Pittsburgh.
The live survey of 400 likely Democratic voters was conducted March 12-14 by Anzalone Liszt Research and has a 4.9% MoE.
It's in full after the jump:
March 15, 2012
To: Interested Parties
Fr: Anzalone Liszt Research
Re: Summary of Primary Election Tracking Poll Results in Pennsylvania CD-12
Since January, Jason Altmire has increased his lead in the Democratic primary for the newly-drawn 12th CD in Pennsylvania. Critz's attempt to decide the election via a lawsuit has backfired on him, and Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50% Altmire / 34% Critz) to a 24-point lead today (55% Altmire / 31% Critz).
Altmire has grown his lead by 8 points and has made big gains with his current constituents.
• Altmire has moved from a 16-point lead in January (50% Altmire / 34% Critz) to a 24-point lead
today (55% Altmire / 31% Critz).
• Much of these gains came among voters who live in Altmire's current district. Among these
Democrats, who make up 64% of the likely primary electorate, his lead has grown from 49 points
(66% Altmire / 17% Critz) to 61 points (73% Altmire / 12% Critz).
Critz's legal tactics have driven up his negatives, especially among Altmire's current constituents.
• Voters who said they were following the lawsuit story very closely were turned off by Critz's
tactics. 49% of them say they believe Critz was "playing dirty politics that I find distasteful",
while 45% disagreed.
• Altmire's constituents were also against Critz trying to deny their current Congressman the ballot
through the courts. 40% say they believe Critz was "playing dirty politics that I find distasteful",
while 33% disagreed.
• Critz's legal tactics have damaged him among voters in Altmire's current district.
o His unfavorable rating among them has gone from 6% in January to 17% today.
o At the same time, his favorable rating among them has remained unchanged at 21%.
Altmire's own popularity has increased at the same time Critz's negatives have gone up.
• Altmire's standing among voters has improved since our last poll, from 57% favorable / 17%
unfavorable in January to 64% favorable / 15% unfavorable today.
• Altmire's intense positive ratings have increased and are now significantly higher than Critz's.
o In January, 18% of voters viewed Altmire very favorably, compared with 15% for Critz.
o Today, 28% of voters view Altmire very favorably, compared with 19% for Critz