Low turnout may help GOP

More here from the NYT's John Harwood on turnout -- it should be low for both parties, but the enthusiasm gap favors the GOP:

Just 17 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the Texas primary for governor, which was a much-publicized battle between the incumbent Republican, Rick Perry, and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Just 22 percent showed up in Illinois for contests for governor and for the Senate seat once held by President Obama. That turnout was the lowest in two decades.

“No groundswell of voters so far,” concluded Rhodes Cook, an expert on voting patterns. Nor does history suggest that one is likely in November.

. . . Mark Gersh, who provides targeting data to Democratic candidates at the National Committee for an Effective Congress, sees several challenges for his party. One is defections to Republicans among important constituencies, including independents, suburban women and small-town voters.

Another is a wide enthusiasm deficit. In last week’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 65 percent of Republicans called themselves highly interested in the campaign, compared with 46 percent of Democrats.