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Sabato: PA3 leans R

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Add Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia to the list of prognosticators saying Erie Dem Kathy Dahlkemper's seat is moving to the right:

PA-03 (Dahlkemper-D): Pennsylvania’s 3rd District was tight as a tick in the 2008 presidential race, as Republican nominee John McCain triumphed over Barack Obama by just 17 votes among the nearly 300,000 votes cast. Simultaneously, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper prevailed over incumbent Republican Phil English by just 2%. This is a battleground district, with both parties able to be competitive if the conditions are right. This year, the conditions are simply not right for Democrats. If the 2008 presidential race was run again in this district today, McCain would win by a much larger margin and polling shows Dahlkemper already trailing the Republican nominee, Mike Kelly. Dahlkemper has no choice but to go hard negative against him, running an ad sarcastically asking voters to “pity the multi-millionaires.” Not only does this signal the level of desperation in the Dahlkemper camp, it could also backfire. The Crystal Ball changes our rating from Toss-Up to Leans R.

(h/t GrassrootsPa)

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