Polling from the conservative Republican group American Action Network shows two GOP challengers in Western Pa -- Mike Kelly and Tim Burns -- leading Democratic incumbents. The National Review has the overview:
Their polls, conducted for American Action Forum on July 28, 29, 31, and August 1, with 4,800 likely general-election voters — 400 each in Connecticut’s 4th and 5th districts, Florida’s 24th district, New York’s 20th, 23rd and 25th districts; Pennsylvania’s 3rd, 10th, 11th, and 12th districts; Virginia’s 5th district; and West Virginia’s 3rd district — show competitive races throughout the East. In aggregate, they find 35 percent of the voters in these districts say their representative deserves reelection while 52 percent say it is time for someone else.
. . . Pennsylvania 3: Despite challenger Mike Kelly having just 62 percent name recognition, he leads Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper by a 52 to 38 percent margin.
. . . Pennsylvania 12: Challenger Tim Burns’s 84 percent name recognition is almost identical to Rep. Mark Critz’s 82 percent, and Burns leads on the ballot by a slim 44 to 40 percent margin.
You can read the full questions/answers for PA-3 voters here and PA-12 voters here. The Action Network describes the poll results as "East Coast Incumbent Shock," and each poll probes respondents with one question probing them with GOP talking points: for Critz, one question asks if voters if they are less likely to vote for him since he "was reprimanded by the Cambria County Elections Director for violating state law on the day of the special election" and for Dahlkemper, "She voted for ObamaCare, the Democratic health care reform bill."
But for the most part the poll underlines what most politics-watchers already know, that these are two districts that voted John McCain for president and should have Democrats worried. In PA-12, 55% said they were against health care reform, yet pluralities still said they would prefer a Democrat represent them and that they did not support the Tea Party movement. In PA-3, another 55% opposed HCR, and big majorities said they want a Republican representative (by 42-28%) and were also opposed to the Tea Party.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is also targeting Dahlkemper as part of a $22 million nationwide advertising push, Politico reports.