Sestak's poll jump continues to dominate the converstation today. We're still waiting to see if Nate Silver changes his tune (he hedged a bit yesterday afternoon), but til then we have new stuff below from both Pollster, National Journal's Hotline and Fox News.
We'll see if this is a full-blown trend, and Republicans need to get really scared, when Quinnipiac releases its latest Senate poll tomorrow.
Here's Pollster's Mark Blumenthal:
Our standard trend estimate, which takes all of these surveys into account, now shows Toomey leading by less than four points (46.1% to 42.6%), just a whisker from toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate, which puts greater weight on the four most recent polls, shows Sestak ahead by a toss-up 1.8 point margin (44.6% to 42.8%).
And the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy has this at National Journal's Hotline blog:
Pennsylvania Senate: Republican Pat Toomey has carried the frontrunner's mantle for much of this race by virtue of a consistent, though not overwhelming, lead in the polls. But, recent surveys have indicated that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is closing the gap. In the last five polls released, Toomey's average lead has shrunk from the high single digits to just three points, well within the margin of error.
There is evidence that the Democratic base is starting to wake up and focus on the mid-term election, which helps candidates like Sestak running in blue states and accounts for some of the closure. But, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee might deserve much of the credit for Sestak's progress. Since August, the DSCC has spent nearly $4.2 million on Sestak's behalf, almost all of it on television ads attacking Toomey. Other groups sympathetic to Sestak have spent another $600,000 for a total of $4.8 million.
Republicans have invested in Toomey's candidacy, but have not matched Democrats' total. Overall, a dozen Republican groups have combined to put $3.9 million into the race. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has spent $897,500 in IE funds, but is expected to put more money in now that the race has closed.
Back to the Republicans getting scared part. Here's Fox News:
Republican strategists are growing more and more concerned about the state of the Senate race in Pennsylvania, where former Rep. Pat Toomey has held a commanding lead for weeks over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak.
. . . A Republicans strategist who is advising several campaigns in the Keystone State, but not Toomey's, said that the situation is "dangerous" and that the risks were "very real."
"People took this race for granted for too long. People forget that this is an overwhelmingly Democratic state," he told Power Play. "This was never going to be easy."