Critz underperforms Murtha

It's not all good news for Democrat Mark Critz in the 12th, says poll-watcher Tom Schaller at FiveThirtyEight:

Fourth, as I mentioned in yesterday's preview piece, this is the only district won by both John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. So, at first blush, the Critz win would seem to suggest a stalled Republican counter-trend. But I have to believe some of the difference between 2004 and 2008 is a function downballot of John Murtha's problems between those two presidential cycles, and remember: Although Critz outperformed the polls he still underperformed an embattled Murtha's share from less than two years ago.

Fifth, as the chart above shows (99% of counties reporting), Critz won by a smaller margin than Murtha's previous two victories in large part because he did worse in the district's two biggest counties, Cambria and Westmoreland--though he outperformed Murtha in Fayette and a couple of smaller counties.#

Sixth, total two-party turnout of more than 131,000 was just under half the 268,000 who turned out in 2008--though, of course, this was a special election and I wouldn't leap to the conclusion yet that this indicates low excitement or intensity.#

Graphic: FiveThirtyEight. Click for bigger version.