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PPP: Obama by 6, Casey 8

Published by Tim McNulty on .

A new survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling shows Dem incumbents Barack Obama and Bob Casey holding onto leads in Pa:

PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

. . . In Pennsylvania incumbent Bob Casey leads challenger Tom Smith 52-44, aided by 15% crossover support from Republicans and a 49/41 advantage with independents. Casey's approval is back in positive territory at 42/41 after being in the red on several recent polls and despite the millions Smith has put into the race voters still aren't that enamored with him- he has a 38% favorability rating with 40% of voters giving him negative marks.

Full results here.

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Bill Clinton to Pittsburgh

Published by Karen Langley on .

Bill Clinton will campaign for President Obama in Pittsburgh on Monday, the final day before the election, the Obama campaign announced tonight.

The campaign says the former president's path on Monday will include stops in Pittsburgh and Scranton as well as two events in Philadelphia.

He'll be heading here from a full day Sunday that starts in Concord, N.H., at a rally with Obama before campaign events in Dover, N.H., Raleigh, N.C., and St. Cloud, Minn.

From the release:

During the last days of the campaign, President Clinton has been crisscrossing the country, doing grassroots events in battleground states and states with strong Democratic bases, where he is rallying supporters, thanking volunteers for their work on behalf of the President, and encouraging them to help get out the vote on Tuesday. During this final push over the past week, he has done grassroots events in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Details are forthcoming. UPDATE: The Pittsburgh event will be in Market Square with "doors" opening at 10:15 a.m. Tickets are free but must be requested from the Obama campaign.

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WashPost: PA12 leans Republican

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Probably even more Democratic stomachs turning at this: the WashPost's Fix blog has moved it's rating on PA12 from tossup to "lean Republican" in favor of Keith Rothfus over Dem incumbent Mark Critz. It's one of a number of Dem seats in conservative districts looking in trouble Tuesday.

To wit:

Critz is in a very tough spot right now, with Republican polls this month showing him slightly behind Republican Keith Rothfus. This district would have given John McCain 54 percent of the vote in 2008.

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Details on Romney in Bucks Co

Published by Tim McNulty on .

From the PA GOP:

You're Invited to a Victory Event with Mitt Romney & the Republican Team!

Sunday, November 4th, 2012

Doors Open 2:30 PM | Event Begins 5:30 PM

Shady Brook Farm

931 Stony Hill Road in Morrisville, PA 19067

All attendees will go through airport-like security and should bring as few personal items as possible. No bags, sharp objects, umbrellas, liquids, or signs will be allowed in the venue. Cameras are permitted.

For questions, contact us at: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. | (717) 746-8098

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PA12 dark money makes union head "puke"

Published by Tim McNulty on .

darkmoney

There is more "dark money" -- campaign spending from groups that don't have to disclose their donors -- in the PA12 race outside Pittsburgh than in any congressional race in the country, according to figures released today from the nonpartisan Sunlight Foundation.

Most of the $3.3 million in funding has gone to support Republican challenger Keith Rothfus in the race through attack spots on Democratic incumbent Mark Critz. Outside spending in that race (and a surge of Senate and presidential ads) have made the Pittsburgh market the fifth-most advertised in the country.

The barrage of ads is taking a toll on Critz's supporters in organized labor. Leo Gerard, the president of the United Steelworkers union, addressed the race at a Downtown rally this morning, after returning from a barnstorming tour of Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio for Barack Obama.

"When this election was called, Mark Critz was about 14 points ahead. The guy running against him, if you watch local televison, you'll probably puke," Gerard said. "If you get the local television you'll get three anti-Critz ads in a row from three unnamed secret groups. They have spent more money in this congressional district this cycle than they probably spent in all Pennsylvania congressional districts last cycle."

The challenges facing Critz have trickled down to the Beltway talking head crowd. Here's NBC's Chuck Todd talking about PA12 on Chris Matthews' show on MSNBC (video here):

Matthews: "There's a lot of work to be done by the Democrats in southeastern Pennsylvania."

Todd: "They do have work to do in western Pennsylvania. There's a whole bunch of democratic -- your friend Mark Critz is in big trouble."

Matthews: "We can talk about that Appalachian part of the state. I don't want to start a fight right now."

Graphic: Sunlight Foundation

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