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On turnout and enthusiasm

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Null Space turnout graphic

Good number-crunching on the mayoral primary already this morning from the two Chrises.

Yesterday's battle was the most wide-open since 1989 when five candidates (including Tom Murphy and Tom Flaherty) fought over a nomination secured by then-acting Mayor Sophie Masloff. But turnout/interest in the mayor's race has plummeted since a generation ago, as Pitt's Chris Briem writes (that's his graphic above):

But for the long term perspective, I know 24 years ago is ancient history to many but in 1989 110K folks voted in the primary for mayor.  That is not a reflection of population loss.  Total population loss in the city of Pittsburgh since 1989 is around -18%, but the decline in ballots between 1989 and 2013 primaries looks to be -59%.  Big difference.

Here is the trend and note the 2007 race was completely uncontested. There was not a lot to motivate showing up to vote at all.

At City Paper, Chris Potter says Bill Peduto enjoyed an enthusiasm gap over Jack Wagner, piling up huge margins in his East End home base while voters were lax in the South Hills:

There were other signs of an enthusiasm gap. In Ward 14, I count nearly 7,500 Democratic voters casting a ballot yesterday. That's an increase of about 20 percent from the 2009 mayoral primary. Meanwhile, in Ward 19, roughly 200 fewer Democratic voters turned up when compared to 2009. This despite the fact that a native son was on the ballot -– one who would have been the first mayor ever elected from the South Hills.

City Paper comes out Wednesday morning and is printed before Tuesday polls close. Here's their latest hysterical cover re: the mayor's race:

citypaperAJ

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Get your seatbelt on

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Peduto sweeper

So what's next? Bill Peduto has promised "great change" in a city government he says has become corrupted, and he's already on record pointing out some of the things he'll do come January.

Here's just a few:

-- Forcing the Ravenstahl-controlled parking authority to finally fork over the $10 million annually that Peduto's council majority approved in 2010 to help bail out the city pension fund (Look for changes at the Water & Sewer Authority board too, as Peduto supporter Patrick Dowd has long fought for)

-- Conducting a neighborhood-by-neighborhood "Pittsburgh Survey" of city residents

-- Requiring green construction in housing authority construction development

-- Changing 1980s-era parking permitting

-- Sharing parks, purchasing, fiscal and fleet services with Allegheny County

And on and on . . .

Here's the message the Democratic nominee sent to supporters this morning:

Last night, we made history, and today, we are a step closer to a New Pittsburgh.

Our New Coalition was built from the ground up. It encompasses ordinary Pittsburghers from North, South, East and West. Pittsburghers from labor to environmentalists, from women's groups to youth, from the LGBT community to a broad base of elected officials. We built our support from every race, gender and corner of this city.

And, we could not have done this without you.

You who knocked on doors, who phone-banked, who donated, who spoke to your family and friends whether in person or through social media. You took the power back from those who have run this city for decades and put it squarely back in the community and the people who live in it.

You saw the potential that Pittsburgh has and know that we have the opportunity—and the responsibility—to build our great city once again.

Thank you.

Together, we will make Pittsburgh the city we know it can be.

Bill

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Breakfast Sausage: 5 stories to read this morning

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Peduto

Good morning.

1. Bill Peduto will follow nemesis Luke Ravenstahl into the swank mayor's office formerly occupied by Davey Lawrence, Richard Caliguiri, Sophie Masloff and Tom Murphy. As Jim O'Toole's masterful story notes, he'll have to contend with a Downtown business establishment that didn't want him and wait to see if an independent challenger arises to join Republican Josh Wander for the formality of the general election. State law bars those on yesterday's ticket (such as Jack Wagner) from running independent but others have until Aug. 1 to decide.

2. Joe Smydo writes that winds of change, exemplified by that street sweeper, carried Peduto into office. It's hard to know how much of a mandate the Point Breeze policy wonk can claim given the low turnout, however, which is something Wagner hinted at last night. More on turnout later I'm sure.

3. Full coverage on everything else -- city and county council, Superior Court, judges, etc -- is collected here. Two judge candidates who issued questionable party-switching mailers won nods (but from their legit parties).

4. Don't miss the mayoral portraits from Early Returns' 5-year-old artistic director. (PS, Wagner isn't intended to look scary -- that's the way she illustrates all smiles, including that of her favorite movie star, Gnomeo.)

5. You can bet Peduto, a big time hockey fan and player (who used to keep sticks jammed into his Mini), will be having a cold one and watching pivotal game 4 tonight.

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Analyst: Ravenstahl loomed over race

Published by Tim McNulty on .

From Rich Lord:

William J. Green, a political analyst and longtime friend of Jack Wagner's who attended his party, said he thought Luke Ravenstahl could have won renomination if he had stayed in the race.

Mr. Wagner, said Mr. Green, was planning on running in the general election as an independent, when Mr. Ravenstahl's departure changed the playing field.

Mr. Wagner "had less time, but he had money," Mr. Green said. The race, though, didn't excite enough voters.

"No one created passion," Mr. Green said. "None of these guys was visceral."

Mr. Ravenstahl's troubles loomed over the race, and Mr. Peduto successfully tied the mayor to Mr. Wagner, the analyst said. "Despite efforts to divorce from the mayor, it didn't work, or wasn't heard."

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Wheatley: "Did a lot with very little"

Published by Tim McNulty on .

wheatleyson

From Alex Zimmerman:

Rep. Jake Wheatley, D-Hill District, conceded the city mayor's race shortly after it became clear that his single digit pre-election poll numbers were unlikely to improve on election night.

In what he acknowledged was a long-shot campaign, Mr. Wheatley said he would continue to advocate for marginalized communities.

"No matter who goes into that office, we will make sure our issues are addressed," he said. "They will continue to hear from Jake Wheatley."

In a cozy basement room of the Strip District's Savoy restaurant, Mr. Wheatley thanked a small gathering of supporters, friends and family, including his 16-month-old son, who donned a "Wheatley for mayor" shirt.

Mr. Wheatley expressed disappointment that so few citizens voted, saying that wealthy interests had a disproportionate influence in the election. "Had we raised a million dollars like the other two candidates in this race, then it wouldn't even be close. We didn't have the massive war chest to show credibility."

Nonetheless, Mr. Wheatley said he's grateful for all of those who supported him.

"We did a lot with very little, but we should all be proud that what we accomplished in this short time frame," Mr. Wheatley said. "We were under-resourced and not very well known, but I think we ran a race that we can all be proud of."

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