Before we get to Tuesday's main event – and even before we get to today's preliminary activities, which include Pittsburgh appearances by both Battling Toms – let's take one last look at some polling numbers and the last-minute projections by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog.
Two polls updated their numbers at the end of last week – and those figures look much like they have for the last several weeks. Democratic nominee Tom Wolf holds leads in both, although one set of numbers – those from Magellan Strategies – shows a much tighter race.
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Mr. Wolf holds a 51-39 point lead over Gov. Tom Corbett here, although this manages to be a poll that neither candidate would be happy about. Even with the lead, Mr. Wolf's unfavorable rating had climbed from 25 percent in September to 36 percent in this poll. And for Mr. Corbett? His ratings actually improved, but c'mon – that double-digit deficit looks rough just days before the election.
Magellan Strategies: The margin here is different – Mr. Wolf has a less-comfortable lead of 49.6-43.3 – but just under half of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of our sitting governor.
FiveThirtyEight: And that leads us to this: Mr. Silver says there's just a 1 percent chance that Mr. Corbett will retain his seat on Tuesday. Mr. Wolf enjoys an 11.6-point advantage in Mr. Silver's list, which puts him – and Pennsylvania overall – in some interesting company. In gubernatorial races where Democrats are favored to win, only New York, California, Hawaii and Vermont – all solidly blue states – have bigger advantages in Mr. Silver's forecast. But now is not the time to start your celebrations, Dems – as of this morning, Mr. Silver also says there is a 72.3 percent chance that Republicans will win the U.S. Senate on Tuesday.