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F&M: Obama lead down to 4 in Pa

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Barack Obama's lead over Mitt Romney is down to 4 points in Pennsylvania -- at 49-45% -- which slices in half the 9-point lead he had just a month ago in the last Franklin & Marshall poll and puts the race within the survey's margin of error.

Things look better for US Sen. Bob Casey, who has opened a 10-point lead over GOP challenger Tom Smith.

Findings from Terry Madonna's survey (which is available here) include:

* Obama leads Romney, 49% to 45%, with 4% undecided among likely voters while in September he led 52% to 43%, with 3% undecided.
* Bob Casey leads Tom Smith, 46% to 36%, with 13% undecided in the US senate race. In September Casey led, 48% to 38%, with 8% undecided.
* Obama is seen as better able to handle foreign policy issues, 56% to 37%, better able to understand the concerns of ordinary Americans, 54% to 39%, better able to handle the job as military chief, 51% to 42%, closest to voters' views on abortion and gay marriage, 47% to 40%, but Romney is now seen as more prepared to fix our economic problems, 47% to 42%.
* Obama is viewed favorably by 50% of respondents similar to September but Romney is viewed favorably by 43% compared to 34% in September.
* President Obama's job performance rating is more negative (46%) than positive (53%).
* Voters are less interested in the election this year, 67% (very interested) when compared to 2008, 73%, (very interested).

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Rove, Morris PACs come to Pa

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Fox News talking heads will be coming to other stations near you, Pennsylvania.

Sure enough a Karl Rove SuperPAC will be advertising in Pa -- and Dick Morris's is elbowing its way onto the suddenly crowded airwaves too to aid Mitt Romney's 11th hour battle for the state's 20 electorals.

Rove's American Crossroads goes up in the Pittsburgh market tomorrow -- here's one $71K buy with WPXI-TV -- and Morris's SuperPAC for America goes up on the same station the same day. (There are probably others in the market but they're not yet reflected in the FCC's online public files.) The latter looks to be part of a $125,615 buy.

American Crossroads is also going up in Harrisburg.

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Obama's two Pa ads up

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Regarding the back and forth between the Obama and Romney camps over Pa, here are the two network TV spots the Obama team is putting up (not sure in which markets) in Pa. At top is the minute-long positive spot on Obama's economic plans and at bottom an attack spot comparing Romney's 14% tax rate to the higher one paid by middle class voters.

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Two new GOP spots in PA12

Published by Tim McNulty on .

There are two new ads up in the PA12 race, one from Republican Keith Rothfus and another from his friends in the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The upbeat Rothfus ad features his two Alices, which is a regular part of his stump speech -- daughter Alice and the candidate's worries about the national debt and mother Alice and his worries about the future of Medicare. (Medicare homework here.)

Said Democrat Mark Critz's camp:

"This is yet another hypocritical, false attack from Keith Rothfus and his allies. The people of Western Pennsylvania know that Mark Critz is one of the most independent members in either party. He has taken on his own party – even President Obama's EPA – to protect Western Pennsylvania jobs. Meanwhile, outside special interest groups are spending millions of dollars attacking Mark Critz to prop up Keith Rothfus, including FreedomWorks, who attacked Mark for opposing turning Social Security over to Wall Street. This same group then had to scrub its website when the attack boomeranged on Rothfus, who still refuses to explain why he wants to privatize Social Security and put our seniors' retirement at risk."

The NRCC ad -- featuring Darth Vadery background music -- warns of Critz's ties to labor and Nancy Pelosi:

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Romney camp ads in Pa too

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Following its SuperPAC, the Romney campaign too says it's going to advertise in Pennsylvania in the last days before the presidential election.

Obama forces said yesterday that the late pitch was a "a sign of weakness" by the GOP (which they decided to counter with their own ads anyway) but today political director Rich Beeson argues the Romney campaign had a chance to build on 2010 GOP wins in the state's Senate and gubernatorial races and on his popularity around Philadelphia.

We've asked the campaign where and when the ads are expected. CNN reports they're running in Philadelphia Monday and Tuesday. (UPDATE: The Romney camp disputes that, but won't elaborate.)

The GOP ad is about coal (for a refresher on the complicated politics of coal go here):

UPDATE: The Obama campaign's senior communications advisor Desiree Peterkin Bell responded:

"With a week to go and consistently down in must-win states, Mitt Romney's campaign is desperately trying to find a path to 270 electoral votes. Today, in a last ditch effort, the Romney campaign started down the well-worn path of every Republican presidential candidate since 1992 who have invested heavily in and ultimately lost the Keystone State.

"The Romney campaign's new ad in Pennsylvania distorts the President's record and reeks of desperation. Under President Obama's leadership, employment in coal mining hit a 15 year high in 2011 while he's making historic investments in clean coal research and development. But, as governor Mitt Romney said a coal-fired plant 'kills people' and touted his power plant regulations as the 'toughest in the nation.' The President has an all-of-the-above energy plan for his second term that will cut our oil imports in half by 2020 and support 600,000 natural gas jobs by the end of the decade. And President Obama has set a goal of developing cost-effective clean coal technologies within 10 years. Mitt Romney can try to hide his true positions and policies in the final week of the campaign, but the truth is that he has no plan to create jobs or strengthen the middle class."

The full memo from Beeson is after the jump:

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