An internal poll conducted by Republican firm the Tarrance Group for Mike Kelly's campaign and the NRCC shows the Butler car dealer well ahead of Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, D-Erie, 48-37. The survey of 305 likely voters has a margin of error of 5.8 percent.

Time for the caveats: It's a GOP poll, and similar surveys proved inaccurate in forecasting the Tim Burns-Mark Critz special election. Still, 11 points is a lot.

Some other notable numbers: Kelly, a former city councilman in Butler, carries an impressive 67 percent name recognition and 51 percent of voters think Dahlkemper does not deserve re-election.

There must be a reason why the DCCC is pouring money into this one.

Full polling memo is here.