There is reason for that boost of ads and national attention for NW Pa's congressional race -- Mike Kelly has opened up a 6-point lead over incumbent Erie Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall poll.

Here's Hotline's take:

In PA 03, a Franklin and Marshall survey of registered voters finds Kelly leading Dahlkemper by 4 points, 42% to 38%. That's a strikingly low re-elect number for an incumbent and the pollster noted that as the likely voter screen became more restrictive in the sample, Kelly's lead expanded to six points.

Dahlkemper has become a top target for the GOP, as conservative groups have targeted the GOP-leaning district. The NRCC has also reserved nearly $600K in air time in the district, while the DCCC has reserved $1M in air time to defend Dahlkemper.