We finally have a public poll to back up what the internals are saying about the Senate race -- that it's a dead heat. With two weeks to go, Public Policy Polling -- run by proud Tar Heel Tom Jensen -- is showing Democrat Joe Sestak ahead, 46-45 percent, on Republican Pat Toomey. Two months ago, PPP found Toomey ahead 45-36.
Since that mid-August poll, PPP found, Sestak picked up nearly all of the undecided independents: Toomey's Indy advantage went from 50-23 to 49-48. The likely voter pool is also trending more Democratic as more Dems get engaged in the race -- from August to October the likely voter pool went from voting McCain by a 1-point margin in 2008 to voting Obama by 4.
Some more numbers: Sestak has a 43-39 favorable-unfavorable rating, while Toomey is 41-41. The majority disapprove of Arlen Specter's job performance -- 32-57 approve-disapprove -- but both candidates have made their feelings clear about the incumbent, so he's not dragging anyone down. Obama has a 43-51 approve-disapprove rating, while Sen. Bob Casey is at 40-37.
Full polling memo is here.