Still another poll weighs in with a depiction of an oh-so-close Pennsylvania Senate race. But once again, you’d rather have Toomey’s numbers than Sestak’s.
CNN/Time found the Republican leading the closely watched contest, 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Interestingly though, without the likely voter screen, the numbers flip. Among all registered voters, Mr. Sestak led, 47 percent to 43 percent, a statistical dissonance consistent with the widespread perception that Republicans appear more likely to go to the polls next week.
The likely voters surveyed by the CNN/Time folks also gave Tom Corbett a significant lead in the governor's race _ 52 percent to 45 percent. But once again, when they cast theri polling net over the wider group of all registered voters, the Democratic candidate, Dan Onorato, held the lead. Among likely voters, it was Corbett, 52 percent; Onorato, 45 percent _ virtually unchanged from the news organizations' last Pennsylvania survey a month ago. But among all registered voters, Mr. Onorato was ahead, 48 percent to 46 percent. A month ago, Mr. Corbett led in both calculations. The results pointed to the GOTV challenge both parties, and particularly Democrats face in a state where Democrats have more voters, but Republicans, for months, have demonstrated more enthusiasm about going to the polls.
In another look at the Senate race, Terry Madonna’s latest Franklin & Marshall survey, also released yesterday, saw a slightly larger lead for Mr. Toomey _ 43 percent to 36 percent among likely voters. The F&M numbers for all voters were more favorable for Mr. Sestak _ he trailed by only 2 percentage points with that larger group.
Muhlenburg College’s daily tracking poll, released overnight, saw the Republican leading by 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. The day before, Muhlenburg’s sample showed the Republican with an eight-point advantage.
F&M and Muhlenburg also depicted larger GOP leads in the race for governor. Terry's troops reported a Corbett lead of 47 percent to 32 percent, while Muhlenburg’s latest snapshot showed the Republican up, 52 percent to 38 percent.