We've been talking for a while about the chances of Mark Critz's PA-12 district getting whacked, and the census numbers out today don't help his cause. His district, and all of those in Western Pa, are hemorrhaging voters, perhaps setting up a 2012 faceoff between Critz and another WPa Dem.
Pa will be down to 18 districts (from 19) after reapportionment and each of 18 are supposed to have an average of 707,495 residents. Critz's district -- according to this chart from the Morning Call, posted by Colby Itkowitz -- is the second-farthest underneath the bar of any district statewide, by 95,111 residents.
The biggest drop off of all is Mike Doyle's Pittsburgh-based PA-14 at 123,002 under.
Republican Mike Kelly's PA-3 is 67,139 under and Dem Jason Altmire's Pa-4 is 60,007 under.
UPDATE: Swing State Project and others set the bar a bit differently at 705,688 and thus have different numbers for each CD. Neverthless the same WPa districts are facing trouble. Here's the top of their look today:
Pennsylvania's target is 705,688 based on the drop from 19 to 18 seats, up from about 646K in 2000. The 2nd, 3rd, 12th, and 14th all lost population. I'd really recommend looking at the Census Bureau's interactive map of Pennsylvania, as it shows exactly what's going on: the eastern half of the state gained a bit, while nearly every county in the state's western half outright lost population. In fact, there were enough gains in the east that four districts wind up needing to shed population: the 6th and 15th in the Philadelphia suburbs/exurbs, and the more rural, Pennsylvania Dutch-flavored 16th and 19th. These are all Republican-held districts, but these are all districts that moved sharply in the Dem direction from 2004 to 2008, while on the other hand, the shrinking western districts are Democratic areas but ones where the overall trend has been away from the Dems. (Interestingly, two cities that over recent decades came to symbolize dead northeastern industrial centers, Allentown and Reading, are actually rebounding, gaining around 10,000 people each and helping to grow the 15th and 16th respectively. Much of the growth in those two cities, though, as well as the small growth experienced in Philadelphia, is Hispanic.)