The Mark Patrick Flaherty campaign released some poll results that suggest that the name Flaherty still means something around here _ or maybe it’s just those stickers on the gas pumps.  Anyhow, the survey showed that the controller and county executive candidate with a huge name recognition and commensurate trial heat lead over Rich Fitzgerald, his rival for the Democratic nomination.

Whether those numbers will hold up after they both go on television is anyone’s guess.   According to the survey, Flaherty led his rival 46 percent to 17 percent among likely Democratic voters.  Seven in ten voters recognized the Flaherty name, but only four in ten voters knew enough about Fitzgerald to express an opinion.  All in all, you’d much rather have Flaherty’s numbers than Fitzgerald, but the big undecided suggests plenty of opportunity for movement in the race between now and May17. You’ll find the memo after the jump:

 

GARINHARTYANG

RESEARCH GROUP

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: Mark Patrick Flaherty for County Executive Campaign

FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group

DATE: March 24, 2011

RE: Recent Survey Among Democratic Primary Voters

Our March 18 to 20 survey among 502 likely Democratic primary voters in Allegheny

County (margin of error ±4.5 percentage points) shows that Mark Patrick Flaherty

remains well-positioned to be elected the next county executive. In fact, Mark’s

advantage over Rich Fitzgerald is UNCHANGED from our August survey:

August 2010 % March 2011 %

Mark Patrick Flaherty                    44                    46

Rich Fitzgerald                           16                    17

Undecided                                  40                    37

Much as we found in the August survey, the depth and scope of Mark’s electoral support strongly shows his broad-based acceptability throughout the Democratic primary electorate:

_ Mark leads by better than two to one among liberals, moderates, and conservatives.

_ Mark leads by 28 points among the heavy majority of voters who approve of Dan

Onorato, and he leads by three to one among the small proportion who disapprove.

_ Mark leads by 33 points among union households, while he leads by more than 20

points among college graduates.

Mark’s status as the front-runner is based on two important factors. First, Mark is

recognized by 71% of Democratic primary voters, and he is extremely WELL-LIKED

among those who know him, enjoying an image that is positive by nearly five to one.

Second, during a period in which taxes and spending is at the forefront of voters’ minds, Mark’s position as county controller is an important credential, and he elicits strong job performance marks of 52% approve and just 8% disapprove.

GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP

2

Rich Fitzgerald, on the other hand, lags behind in visibility, with just two in five (39%)

Democratic primary voters who are familiar with him, which is a modest improvement

from his August 2010 name recognition of 31%.

The one note of caution for the Flaherty campaign is that the electorate remains fluid and voters have not yet firmly settled on their choice: three-quarters of Allegheny County Democrats are undecided or have soft commitment to Flaherty or Fitzgerald. But with Election Day drawing near and the fundamental dynamics of the primary working in Mark’s favor, he is in a strong position to emerge victorious on May 17, provided he has the financial resources to SOLIDIFY his support.