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Waiting on rural Ohio counties

Published by Tim McNulty on .

8:40 PM

Romney's up at the moment in Ohio by several points, but the rural counties aren't in yet. From Nate Silver at the NYT:

Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by about 6 percent in Ohio based on the precincts that have reported so far. However, this vote is in some of his strongest areas, and the margin should tighten as more rural areas report.

About 60 percent of the votes tabulated so far are from Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton counties, home to Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, respectively. But only about 20 percent of the votes in the Republican primary in 2008 was cast in one of those counties, meaning it the current vote count is disproportionately weighted toward these areas.

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Santorum picks up Tennessee

Published by Tim McNulty on .

8:37 PM

Rick Santorum picks up another win, as expected, in Tennessee.

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Will Romney win a southern state?

Published by Tim McNulty on .

8:24 PM

Checking in on Georgia, we see Santorum is still holding on to 2nd place there. Which reminds us:

From CNN:

8:17 p.m. ET - @jimacostacnn: Santorum's Brabender: “I’ll be interested to find out if Mitt Romney has won a southern state today.”

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Looking to Okla, Tenn

Published by Tim McNulty on .

With 8 PM looming, and Rick Santorum currently behind in Ohio, he'll be desperate for good news out of conservative Oklahoma and Tennessee. Among GOP voters, 72 and 71% respectively say identify as evangelicals there.

UPDATE 8:05 PM And . . . Fox calls Oklahoma for Santorum.

UPDATE 8;09 PM. Looking good for RS in Tennessee too, according to CNN:

CNN exit polling in Tennessee showed Santorum with 35% support, followed by Romney with 28%, Gingrich with 23% and Paul with 11%.

Okla primer from NBC:

Oklahoma (primary)
Delegates at stake: 40
Polls close: 8:00 pm ET
Open/closed: Closed (registered party members only)
Early voting: In person, no-excuse absentee voting
Mar. 2 (Fri), Mar. 3 (Sat), Mar. 5 (Mon)
Delegate allocation:
CD delegates (15). Proportional per CD vote (15%
threshold); WTA with majority
AL delegates (25).Proportional per statewide vote
(15% threshold); WTA with majority

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In OH, Santorum loses Catholics

Published by Tim McNulty on .

7:50 PM

Lots to mine here in the full CNN exit poll data, but to start:

Santorum did well among blue collar voters (Romney only beat him among those making $100K+), and very conservative/tea party voters. He lost Catholic voters to Romney 43-30%.

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