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Critz ad: pro gun/life, anti-Washington

Published by Tim McNulty on .

In Mark Critz's latest ad in the PA12 race -- like his first one -- the Democrat tries to distance himself from Barack Obama and argue he's more tied to Pennsylvania than Washington. And to help prove the latter he points to the endorsement from the NRA. (Opponent Keith Rothfus was endorsed by the very conservative Gun Owners of America.)

Critz again mentions being pro-life and pro-gun and gets into energy production. "Washington doesn't understand that our Marcellus Shale natural gas and our clean coal can go a long way toward making America energy independent," he says.

UPDATE from Rothfus spokesman Tom Doheny:

"If Congressman Critz were truly pro-life, pro-gun, and against the war on coal, then why on earth is he voting for President Obama for a second term?"

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Santorum endorses Rothfus

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Rick Santorum's PAC Patriot Voices endorsed Keith Rothfus today in his hyper-competitive PA12 race against Democratic incumbent Mark Critz. The former GOP senator and presidential candidate also endorsed eight other congressional candidates nationwide. His statement:

"These endorsements illustrate the commitment of Patriot Voices PAC to elect solid conservatives to the House of Representatives. Each of these candidates is committed to upholding the Constitution in how they cast their votes, cutting wasteful spending, protecting life at every stage, and supporting a consistent and strong foreign policy. As we hit the final stretch to Election Day, Patriot Voices PAC will aggressively work to send these candidates to Congress."

Rothfus has a campaign event this afternoon in McCandless with U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey.

UPDATE: Santorum has advocated cutting Social Security, Critz spokesman Mike Mikus helpfully reminds:

"Keith Rothfus wanted to end the guaranteed Medicare benefit in ten years, costing seniors thousands of dollars more for their health care, but the fact that he's willing to accept Rick Santorum's endorsement shows that he wants to cut Social Security too," Mark Critz for Congress spokesman Mike Mikus said. "If Keith Rothfus was serious about protecting Social Security and Medicare, why would he even consider accepting the support of a known foe of these programs like Rick Santorum?"

Earlier this year, Santorum called for immediate cuts to Social Security benefits for current beneficiaries. Santorum said, "We need to change benefits for everybody now," and, "We can't wait ten years." In the Senate, Santorum was a leading advocate of President George W. Bush's plan to privatize Social Security and on the Presidential trail, said that the Ryan Budget cuts were not deep enough.

"All you have to do is look at who is backing Mark Critz and Keith Rothfus and it is clear which candidate will fight for Social Security and Medicare," Mikus said. "Mark Critz is endorsed by the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, while Keith Rothfus is backed by Rick Santorum. That says it all."

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Outside group hits Smith on education

Published by Tim McNulty on .

The promised ad protecting Bob Casey's Western Pa flank is out today, hitting Tom Smith on education.

The ad from the Democratic-tied Majority PAC -- the first Senate race ad from a national group -- notes that Smith said at a Murrysville forum that he'd consider eliminating the Department of Education.

"On education, Tom Smith is not looking out for you," it says.

A Majority PAC news release said the ad blitz comes along with similar spots hitting Republicans in Indiana, Nevada and North Dakota, and they were launching in Pa because "Tea Party self-funding candidate Tom Smith has bombarded the airwaves in recent weeks." Their backup data on the ad is here.

It's pretty common in Tea Party/conservative circles to question the Dept. of Ed and instead advocate having states and local educators oversee education. (Eliminating it was in the GOP platform way back in 1996.)

Smith has poured $17 million and counting of his own money into the race, which has made the race pretty close, as Tracie Mauriello writes today.

Jim Geraghty at the National Review also writes on the race today, arguing the economic pain facing Reagan Democrats in Western Pa could make it a close race. But it's still a long shot for the GOP:

The difficulty of the challenge before Smith — and Romney — should not be understated; Pennsylvania has 3.1 million registered Republicans, 4.2 million registered Democrats, and about 1.1 million unaffiliated or other party voters. And more than a few political analysts see Pennsylvania as a state that flirts with Republicans every four years before shifting, often decidedly, in favor of the Democrats. But for now, Pennsylvania is looking more purple than blue — a scenario that neither President Obama nor Senator Casey expected to face.

Casey is expected to campaign in Pittsburgh today.

UPDATE from Smith spokeswoman Megan Piwowar:

"This is further evidence of Bob Casey's sputtering campaign and crumbling support. Tom Smith, whose wife taught in public schools for 38 years, would fight to return tax dollars to the classroom, by reducing the bloated federal bureaucracy and unfunded mandates that Casey continues to support."

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In the GOTV science lab

Published by Tim McNulty on .

Great story by Mackenzie Carpenter today on get-out-the-vote drives underway the next two weeks:

Sorting out the undecided voter from the sporadic voter, or from the high propensity voter to the late breaking voter, is a more data-driven exercise than ever before, and more influenced by behavioral psychology.

At the University of Pittsburgh's Student Union, Lara Sullivan, head of the school's College Democrats, has been working for weeks with Obama for America student volunteers, handing out cards for students -- a demographic notorious for not voting -- to fill out, pledging to vote for Mr. Obama, why, where and when.

Then, sometime next week, Ms. Sullivan said, the "commit cards" will be sent back to the students.

"It's a really a great system," she said. "We just got a batch of cards from the Obama campaign last week, that say, 'I'm pledging to vote for Barack Obama because ...' and then the student fills in the blanks, women's rights, student loans, Pell grants, whatever. I have a really great sense it's going to work because they're basically signing something remembering why they're voting."

There's psychology behind all of this, says Sasha Issenberg, author of "The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns." A written pledge to vote, in effect a public declaration within a peer group, will make it more likely the pledger will actually go to the polls, he said.

These days, "campaigns have very granular projections about how likely every single voter in Pennsylvania will be to cast the ballot" and how to get them to the polls, he said.

Sussing out why people vote or don't vote isn't rocket science, but it is behavioral science -- refined during the 2004 and 2008 campaigns by "maverick operatives and academics now calling the shots in some of the most cutting-edge war room," according to "The Victory Lab" website. These days, Mr. Issenberg argues, "the smartest campaigns now believe they know who you will vote for even before you do."